You know what they say you wait for two data analysis articles and three come along at once. To be honest no-one to my knowledge has ever said that, still there is a first time for everything and after looking at the results of Group E in the previous article it is now time to look at Group F.
A total of 903 votes have already been logged up until this point and a big thanks to all that have done so, without further delay lets take a look at how you think the fourth set of polls will pan out. Ladies and Gentlemen here is how you voted in Group E
As always we will look at the group stage winners first,
The joy of (day) six now with my very scientific #WorldCup polls
You know how it works by now
Who will finish TOP of GROUP F
— Dan Tracey (@dantracey1983) June 8, 2018
The current holders Germany have run away with this one, as they picked up 87% of the 86 votes that were polled earlier in the week. That arguably comes as no real surprise but what does is the results that then followed, for example we got our first ever no votes.
Absolutely no-one thinks that Mexico will top the group, a damming indictment if ever I saw one. That is one surprise but what is even more surprising is the fact that 8% of voters think that South Korea will finish top of Group E. This could be down to one of two reasons.
The first is national bias, have South Korean followers perhaps nobbled the statistics somewhat or is it just the equivalent of a spoiled ballot. That said we will never really know so let’s now focus on how the runners up poll played out.
While not forgetting the race for second place?
— Dan Tracey (@dantracey1983) June 8, 2018
75 votes were logged in this poll and again thanks to all that got involved. The result of this poll is probably the most interesting one so far, the reason being that Mexico who did not pick up a single vote in the first round of voting, ending up topping the Group F runners up poll.
The Central American nation, picked up a 44% share of the vote, in doing so it meant the symmetry of the group winners poll being reversed in this one has not taken place, something that we have seen in the majority of the polls that have been carried out.
South Korea throw up another surprise as they also finished second in this poll, the 23% of the vote that they received this time around somehow seems a little bit more legitimate as they edged Sweden by 3% into third. While the Germans finished bottom of this poll with just 13% of the vote
However this can obviously be explained by the fact that with so many people deeming them worthy of topping Group F then why would they vote on them to finish in second place.
In terms of total votes during this first phase of analysis, the current tally now stands at 1064. That figure gives us an average sample size of 88, once again meaning that the two sample sizes were below average this time around. Something that has happened in the last three groups, so the average is being driven down day by day.
If we look at the total votes and the split of whether each nation will qualify for the Round of 16, it is as follows:
As you can see Germany, have picked up just over half of the votes that were logged in the two Group F polls, with Mexico in second place after picking up one fifth of the votes. Although South Korea finished second in both polls, their share of the vote was just under 15% while edging Sweden into last by 3%.
Do these votes perhaps suggest that this could be one of the most wide open groups in the first round of the World Cup, if we assume that Germany are going to finish top then second place could well be up for grabs.
Now we have more six groups worth of polls, we can also start to list who twitter thinks will qualify:
As you can see it is very European based at the moment, with two thirds coming from what will be the tournament’s home continent. What is also interesting is the fact that no nation from Asia or Africa has made it through to the suggested Round of 16 list, will that change before we complete the predictive 16?
Group G analysis will follow tomorrow as I look at how well England have been backed in their pursuit of a first World Cup success since 1966. Until then.
I am always available for any football data projects you may have and/or content creation.
If you have any requirements then please feel free to contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org with the subject line “Football Data”
I am also available via twitter at @dantracey1983 – again feel free to get in touch to discuss any work. Thanks, Dan