You may have seen elsewhere in the website that over the course of the summer I carried out some when the goal split exercises, if you didn’t then the basic premise is very simple. I take all the data over a certain time frame be it for a tournament or just a week in isolation.
They are interesting enough but are just small samples and do not really tell us anything in great deal, therefore I’m now going to start mapping out when goals are scored in the Premier League over the course of the 2017/18 season and see what patterns and trends we can find.
Where better to start than the opening week of the season, the football played out over the weekend of August 11th to 13th saw 31 strikes in total and I’ve been able to calculate with the model that I’ve built where the goals are scored in 15 minute segments.
Here is week 1:
|PL Week 1||3||5||7||0||4||5||7||0||31|
As you can see of the 31 goals scored that week, we saw an almost identical split between the first half and the second half. The first half saw 15 goals across the 10 Premier League matches (1 game did end goalless – that was Southampton vs Swansea) and the second half saw 1 more with 16 goals scored.
What is interesting though is the fact that there is almost a mirror image of when they were scored, there were none scored in injury time of either half, so we can ignore those segments leaving us with three segments per half.
The first half saw a segment split of 3, 5, 7 while the second half saw a segment split of 4, 5, 7. The only difference being that there was one more goal scored in the opening 45 minutes of the first half then there was in the first. What it does show is that there was not a whole host of additional late goals scored in the opening weekend of the season.
But more goals are scored the later in the half, whether this is a pattern that continues throughout the season I am not too sure. My hypothesis is that the majority of goals will be scored in the last 15 minutes with possibly the last two segments of normal time having the most goals.
Now we can compare this to week 2 of the season
|PL Week 2||2||1||4||0||3||4||7||1||22|
Last week saw 22 goals in the Premier League, nine less than the week before and we can also see that the pattern is slightly different, here 7 were scored in the first half and 15 were scored in the second half. That’s twice as many goals scored after the break than before it.
A much more wider spread than the opening week where it was nearly even both before and after the whistle. Now in the first week there were more goals and that could indicate that the amount of goals after the break will stay relatively constant but goals before the break could fluctuate. That is something we will have to keep a track of.
Once again though the most goals were scored in the final 15 minutes, with nearly a third of all goals coming in those final 15 minutes, if we include Charlie Austin’s penalty against West Ham then 8 of the 22 goals were from the 76th minute onwards.
So in terms of a pattern, what we can see after two weeks is that the amount of goals after the break is pretty much the same while just like the week before there were 7 goals scored in the segment 76 to 90. Another hypothesis is that we will see more goals in the second half than the first.
Therefore if we out line the two hypothesis
The most goals will come in minutes 76 to 90 and the most of them will come in the second half
The best way to test that out is to now look at the overall goals scored so far
|Season So Far||5||6||11||0||7||9||14||1||53|
The running total so far this season is 53 and the split of goals between the first half and second half if 22 before the break and 31 after it. Which is also the same amount of goals in the past two weeks – first half being week 2 and second half week 1. That must be nothing more than a coincidence though.
More importantly though the most goals have come in the 76 to 90 minute segment as 26.4% of the all important currency in football have arrived in the final 15 minutes (14 out of 53)
Therefore if we test the two hypothesis above, they are both ringing true at present.
They may not be the most outlandish predictions but we only have a small sample at the moment, the next thing to do will be to drill down and split this out on a club by club level. I will map this in the background and start showing you the results in a few weeks time when we have a sizeable amount of data to digest.
That concludes this analysis, let me know if you have any feedback in the comments section below
I hoped you enjoyed reading this and if you have any football data work available then please contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org