The streak comes to an end after a perfect start to Day 1 of these polls. Twitter has conceded a goal as we have our first incorrect call. Let’s have a recap of what social media thought was going to be the outcome between Portugal and Chile in the FIFA Confederations Cup Semi Final last night
Time for another "Scientific Poll" who will win in the first #FIFAConfederationsCup2017 Semi Final tomorrow?
— Dan Tracey (@dantracey1983) June 27, 2017
As you can see just over a 2:1 ratio thought that Portugal were going to win against Chile but this time around it was not only the slight underdog going into the game that won but also the team with the lowest amount of votes.
In all three polls that have been carried out, each of them has ended up with the bookmakers favourites being the larger in terms of votes. That now means that in those three instances the bookmakers and twitter have got it right on two occasions but incorrect once.
So as a running total it is still 2-1 to twitter going into tonight’s second semi final, one thing we have not seen yet is twitter going against the bookmakers odds. Again maybe that comes down to bias to the favourites and people voting cautiously then opposed to the second horse in this particular race.
In terms of voting sample there were 39 votes, with 27 of those going towards Portugal. That means that only 12 of you went for Chile this time around but those 12 will be feeling pretty smug about themselves today after making the right call.
Now of course there is the strong caveat that the game went to penalties and that sort of nullifies the pick slightly but at the end of the day it was a simple who do you think will win question therefore we can say that people either overestimated Portugal or underestimated Chile.
Does that give us some sort of familiarity bias where because more people are aware of Portugal’s players than Chile it becomes something of a far easier pick. That is something that I have theorised in the Germany vs Mexico game on which I will analyse tomorrow.
In terms of total votes, across the 3 polls there have been 131 votes, thanks to all who have got involved and took the time to vote. Of those 131 votes, 66 of them have been correct meaning that there is a correct vote rate of just over 50.3% – that ratio of course we have seen a drop after the slight upset last night.
This will be an interesting metric to follow as this ultimately will show us just how in tune twitter is in terms of polls and whether the wisdom of crowds can be trusted. I do also have some other ideas in regards to this but they will follow once the domestic season begins.
That concludes the analysis for this piece when the week is out and both international tournaments are complete I will wrap up the early findings, so do keep an eye out for those and also keep an eye out for the poll data and poll data analysis which will online over the course of the weekend.
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