We already know the first of the finalists in this year’s FIFA Confederations Cup as Chile knocked out Portugal last night (more of that in a separate analysis article). Tonight however we will find out who will join the South American champions as Germany and Mexico go head to head.
The prediction data is the largest swing yet with nearly a 4:1 ratio in favour of Germany, this poll was the smallest sample of votes yet with 32 people taking the time to vote and again thanks to all that took part. This means that the average sample size is now 41, so a below average sample size but in these early days that is not all that much of a problem.
If we look at the bookmakers odds, we can see that Germany are the favourites (again ignoring the draw, although we could use the outright win market as more in line marker)
If you look at the odds you will see that they are closer than what the polls indicate, again though this is with the draw odds still included. If we were to look at the outright to win the odds look as follows
In this instance it is actually a shorter price for Mexico once going against what the polls have picked, this could though be an obvious case of favourite bias or even familiarity bias taking place. With perceived knowledge of Mexico not as big as Germany then it is far easier to go with the World Cup winners, although once again it is not the most ludicrous of picks.
We will see if the pollsters got this right tomorrow
— Dan Tracey (@dantracey1983) June 28, 2017
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