Firstly you will have to forgive the fact that I completely forgot to even set up this fixture with a preview in regards to how the poll had gone, I think a mixture of the weekend and this red hot British summer sun (of which that is a rarity) meant that this particular piece passed me by, so with that in mind I’ll delve into the prediction data straight away for the FIFA Confederations Cup Final between Germany and Chile
Time for another prediction poll
— Dan Tracey (@dantracey1983) July 1, 2017
As you can see there were 35 votes in this poll, thanks to all that took part and this means that the average sample size has fallen slightly to 41 meaning this was a below average sample size, which for a tournament final is something of a surprise but never mind all data is good data right now.
This meant that 24 people voted for Germany and 11 voted for Chile and it would be those 24 who would be smiling as they made the right call thanks to a slender 1-0 win for Joachim Low’s young experimental side.
Once again the poll went in the direction of the bookmakers favourite’s meaning that this streak has been a perfect 6-0, in no instance has a poll gone against the odds when in a straight ‘a’ or ‘b’ pick, that is quite an interesting outcome but then again not all that surprising either.
That does confirm that there is some favourite bias but at the same time when it comes to football it is almost counter intuitive to bet against the team who is more likely to win.
This is the second time that the German senior national team have been in a poll and both times they have been predicted to win and then followed up on that prediction, lets know compare the vote splits from the two matches that they were involved in
Confederations Cup Semi Final
Confederations Cup Final
That also is not be to be unexpected as more people would envisage the game between Germany and Chile being something of a closer run thing than that of the encounter between Germany and Mexico.
Germany have been involed in two matches were there were a total of 67 votes cast and of those 49 people picked them as a winner. Therefore 73.1% of votes have gone in the favour of Germany while 26.9% have gone towards the opposition that is nearly a 3:1 voting ratio in favour of the World Cup winners. Therefoer it is fair to say that the German’s are a heavily backed nation
In terms of a running total it is 4-2 to Twitter in terms of getting outcomes correct, a 66.6% strike rate while of the 243 votes that were compiled from the six polls 131 of the were the right choices. That means that 53.9% of all votes are correct ones so social media in the main is making more correct decision than wrong ones.
That will conclude the national polls for now as we hit the month of July when the football is even sparser but there will be plenty of polls once the European domestic seasons start.
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