If you were reading this website on Saturday then you would have seen that there were two sets of analysis articles and Tuesday is no different as I complete the last of my eight sets of World Cup polls. The previous piece looked at the data in Group G so of course logic dictates that we should finish with Group H.

And logic would be absolutely correct, up until this point 1304 votes have been cast in the first 14 polls that I have carried out once this set is analysed this only the beginning as from there we then look at the individual match polls to see if the wisdom of social crowds can actually predict the outcome of matches.

As always first lets look at how the poll to finish top of Group H panned out

103 votes were cast in this poll and again thanks to all that have got involved so far, this one saw 63% of the vote go to Colombia as they comfortably topped proceedings in Group H. The South Americans beat Robert Lewandowski’s Poland into second as they picked up 28% of the vote with Senegal and Japan left with the scraps of 6% and 3% respectively.

With who will finish top of Group H decided, let’s now take a look at how the votes were cast in the poll to see who will end up in second place.

This poll was the closest of the all the 16 that we have seen at this stage of the tournament, again we saw the reverse symmetry of the group winner finishing second the poll this time around but it was wide open in terms of positions.

There was just a 17% margin across all four teams, Poland topped proceedings with just over one third of the votes while Colombia came second on 27% votes. Again there was no love for any nation from Asia or Africa with Senegal and Japan bringing up the rear.

In the 16 polls that have been carried out there have been no nations from either Asia or Africa voted into the knockout stages is this a prediction that will carry through to the tournament itself, to be honest I would be surprised if it was made up solely of European and South American nations (and Mexico).

In terms of total votes, 1505 have been logged meaning the average sample size is at 94 votes per poll, this also means that both the poll sizes were above average, while again thanks to everyone who has taken the time to log a vote other the past week or so.

Now we have analysed all of the polls, we can also start to list who twitter thinks will qualify:

Uruguay
Russia
Spain
Portugal
France
Denmark
Argentina
Croatia
Brazil
Serbia
Germany
Mexico
Belgium
England
Colombia
Poland

As you can see it is very European based at the moment, with over 68.7% what will be the tournament’s home continent. Obviously the heavy European interest can be explained by having so many more entrants but 11 out of 16 is quite the return.

The next step will be to see just how many of these polls did Twitter get correct, not only that though as the tournament progresses will look into the match by match poll analysis. The fun has only just begun with more articles to follow from next week and beyond.

 

I am always available for any football data projects you may have and/or content creation.

If you have any requirements then please feel free to contact me at realfootballmanwordpress@gmail.com with the subject line “Football Data”

I am also available via twitter at @dantracey1983 – again feel free to get in touch to discuss any work. Thanks, Dan