If you’ve been keeping a keen eye on the Real Football Data website you will have seen that there have been a raft of pre-tournament prediction poll analysis articles that have been created. Five have already been completed with the last of them being that of Group E. Now we focus our attention on that of Group F.

Let’s see how you voted when I asked who would finish top of Group F

We all now how this one panned out. You got this one wrong, massively wrong. Holders Germany did not only finish top of Group E but they were also sent packing. 86 votes were logged in this poll and of those 87% felt that the Germans would finish 1st. Ouch.

What is staggering is that no one thought Mexico would win the group, the first time there has been a 0% result.

Let’s see if the wisdom of twitter can now redeem itself when we look at the poll for who will finish runner in Group F

There was at least a form of redemption here as although Mexico picked up a 0% vote in the opening poll. Twitter did at least back them to finish runner up, something that would ultimately prove to be correct. Although it must be said that they snatched second from the jaws of first after such a heavy defeat to Sweden in their final group game.

Therefore perhaps those celebrations should be muted, ultimately though it means a couple of things,. Twitter has hit it’s second bust in terms of predicting teams, the first error was in Group E with Serbia and now it is Germany also.

This means that Twitter’s success rate in the polls is 8 out of 12 or 66.6%, while the predicting of teams to reach the Round of 16 is at 83.3%

Let’s take a look at the voting breakdown for Group E:

75 votes were incorrectly logged for Germany to top the group
33 votes were correctly logged for Mexico to finish runners up.

This means that just 20.4% of all the votes that were logged in Group E were correct. Nothing to write home about here.

In terms of the total votes, we are now up to 1054. Again thanks to all that have got involved, of those 1054 there have been 465 correct ones. This means the percentage has slipped to 43.7% in terms of correct votes, the reasoning here is the weight that was put behind Germany to win Group F.

If we were to attribute a value of 4 points to the poll winner and 1 to the team with the least votes then it would looks as follows:

South Korea 6
Mexico 5
Germany 5
Sweden 4

South Korea came second in both polls but missed out on qualification, while Sweden finished third in both polls and finished top of Group E. So twitter you got this one wrong by quite a distance, then again maybe the blame has to sit with Germany and their abysmal trio of performances.

Here is how the Round of 16 list is shaping up:

Uruguay
Russia
Spain
Portugal
France
Denmark
Croatia (voted second place)
Argentina (voted first place)
Brazil
Switzerland (voted Serbia in second)
Sweden (voted Germany in first place)
Mexico

Can the wisdom of crowds pick things up when we look at Group G?

 

I am always available for any football data projects you may have and/or content creation.
If you have any requirements then please feel free to contact me at realfootballmanwordpress@gmail.com with the subject line “Football Data”

I am also available via twitter at @dantracey1983 – again feel free to get in touch to discuss any work. Thanks, Dan