We are at the halfway stage of the pre-tournament prediction analysis pieces, if you have read the first three articles then a big thanks. If you have not then there is still time to catch up on those before you delve into this one. The previous article looked at Group C. So like night following day, we are now going to look at how Group D panned out.

First let’s take a look at how you voted in the poll to see who would win Group D.

Well we have our first big story of the analysis. That being that the one hundred percent streak has come to an end. There were 86 votes in this poll and two thirds of voters plumped for Argentina, they however would be let down by the likes of Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero as it was Croatia who finished top of the shop.

So with Argentina polled to win Group D, then the logic would dictate that this poll would also be incorrect as we now look at who you thought would finish runner up.

This one was a lot closer but ultimately still wrong as of the 91 votes that were logged, 43% of you felt that it was going to be Croatia that would finish runner up in Group D behind Argentina. So what does this means in terms of football versus the wisdom of crowds? It means that their hit rate is now just 75% when it comes to correct polls.

57 votes of the 86 in the Group D winners poll went to Argentina
39 votes of the 91 in the Group D runners up poll went to Croatia.

With no correct votes being logged in this poll it means that this will have an adverse effect on the total amount of correct votes overall. In total there have been 756 votes logged up until this point, a big thanks to all that have got involved.

Of those 371 votes are correct, meaning that 49% of all votes have been correct ones. Which although is just below half, when you consider that there is a 75% chance of making the wrong choice that is still pretty good going at this halfway stage of the analysis.

What is also interesting in this brace of polls is the fact that many felt that Iceland would finish third in the group, something that was ultimately proved to be incorrect

If we were to attribute a value of 4 points to the poll winners and 1 to the team with the lowest votes then Group D would look as follows:

Argentina 7
Croatia 7
Iceland 4
Nigeria 2

This one was quite a way off the mark in fairness, so Group D has not been a success story. Only one of the four groups have been predicted correctly in terms of order (25%) hit rate and a 75% success rate in terms of correct polls.

Can the wisdom of crowds find their feet again when we focus on Group E.

Here is how the Round of 16 list is shaping up:

Croatia (voted second place)
Argentina (voted first place)

So Twitter has at least got all the correct teams, but the Group D order is incorrect.


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