In the first of the eight articles on this topic, I looked at whether the wisdom of crowds knows what they are talking about when it comes to predictions. That article looked at who would finish top and runner up in Group A and know I’m going to look at whether social media knows what they are talking about when it comes to Group B.

First up let’s take a look at how you predicted Group B would turn out:

Firstly a big thanks to the 115 of you that voted, and of those that did then 76% of them can give themselves a big pat on the back. Although that said only just, it may have needed goals scored for Fernando Hierro’s men to get the job done but at the end of the day it was enough to top the group and in turn see the poll correct.

This means we are now at 3/3 in terms of whether twitter knows what it is talking about when it comes to polls

Let’s see if the run can now continue when it comes to the poll to see who will finish runner of Group B.

114 of you voted, taking the total amount of logged votes up to 424 over the four polls that have been carried out. In this one 61% of voters got the outcome correct as Portugal were pipped to second place. Again had they scored a couple more goals in their win over Morocco then we would have seen a much different outcome.

Due to such confidence in both Spain and Portugal it meant that 68.5% of all the votes that were logged in Group B were correct, considering there were more incorrect options then correct ones this is quite an emphatic win for the pollsters.

Not only that but it means that 61.5% of all the votes that have been logged so far have been correct, this means that more than two votes out of every three have been a correct one. Well done twitter especially as you are now four from four in terms of polls.

If we were to add a value of 4 to the poll winner and 1 to the least favourite then the points would look as follows:

Spain 7
Portugal 7
Iran 4
Morocco 2

Now considering there was very little to split Spain and Portugal this is what you would imagine to see, although well done Twitter again as they also predicted that Iran would finish ahead of Morocco in Group B.

So they have got four picks out of four correct in terms of Round of 16 qualifiers and also 1 group of out 2 correct in terms of placings. Egypt were the team that caught every one out in the opening group.

Can Twitter take that 100% hit rate into Group C and beyond?

 

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I am also available via twitter at @dantracey1983 – again feel free to get in touch to discuss any work. Thanks, Dan