You may or may not be aware that before the start of this Summer’s World Cup I carried out a raft of pre-tournament polls. 16 to be precise, with the aim being to see whether the wisdom of crowds could predict who would qualify for the knockout stages. Each group had two polls each, one to see who would win and who would finish second. So now that we have reached the Round of 16, it is time to carry out the analysis. First up we will look at how you voted in Group A.

Here is how you voted in terms of who will finish top of the group.

Of the 87 people who took the time to vote, first a big thanks to them as without any votes I don’t have any data but not only that they need to give themselves a big pat on the back as two thirds of them got the outcome spot on. Uruguay topped the group and that means a win for the pollsters.

Let’s now look at how you voted in the poll to see who would finish runner up.

This poll was a bit closer then opposed to the Uruguay win in the first poll, but again Twitter needs to give itself a pat on the back. As 39% of the 118 that voted were correct on this, so this means that the group got a 2 for 2 hit rate.

Let”s take a look at some points of note shall we:

In total 195 votes were logged, and 104 of these votes were correct. Now because its not a straight pick at this stage of the competition then it’s not perhaps the fairest metric to say x percentage of voters got this correct, as more often then not they will be outweighed by incorrect votes (as there are 3 incorrect options compared to 1 correct option.

However this does mean that 53.3% of all the votes that were cast where correct choices, so just in a majority. This signifies polling success, most importantly though the best start was the fact the two poll winners finished in that exact order so this group was polled correctly.

The biggest disappointment was undoubtedly Egypt. They were undoubtedly coming into the tournament off the back of the Mo Salah factor but unfortunately they did not live up to expectations as they finished bottom of the group.

If we give a ranking in each poll from 4 points winners to 1 last, then the group would have looked as follows:

Uruguay 6
Russia 5.5
Egypt 4.5
Saudi Arabia 2

So the top two matched the total pollsters expectations, but Egypt fell even shorter after finishing bottom of the group. Not even their talisman Mo Salah could lead them to victory over Saudi Arabia, something that would have been something of a disappointment, especially as the Liverpool forward is rumoured to be quitting the Egypt national team.

The most important metric though is that Twitter has an 100% hit rate, will this carry through when we move on to Group B?

Thanks for reading, more importantly keep an eye out on the website as there will be a whole raft of analysis pieces in the days and weeks to come. Not only for the rest of the groups but also all the individual match polls that I have carried out. In addition to this there will be additional analysis on such measures on when goals were scored and by whom.

I am always available for any football data projects you may have and/or content creation.
If you have any requirements then please feel free to contact me at realfootballmanwordpress@gmail.com with the subject line “Football Data”

I am also available via twitter at @dantracey1983 – again feel free to get in touch to discuss any work. Thanks, Dan