We are now past the halfway mark as we look at the analysis of the pre-tournament prediction polls that we carried out before the start of the World Cup. We already know the first half of the nations that will make up the Round of 16, but now it is time to focus on the second. To do so we need to avert our attention to Group E.

Here is how you voted in regard to who you thought would go on to win Group E.

This one was nothing short of an absolute landslide as Brazil picked up 90% of the 68 votes that were logged, a big thanks to all that got involved in the poll with the majority of yourselves being able to feel relatively smug as Neymar and Philippe Coutinho delivered.

Because there was such a huge amount of votes for Brazil it means there was very little to share between the other three nations, so much so that it was almost a three way tie between Serbia, Switzerland and Costa Rica

So that means that Twitter now has a record of 7 polls correct out of 9, but how did they fare when we look at the Group E runners up poll:

There were 69 votes in this poll and although the voters can be happy with themselves after such a landslide Group E poll win for Brazil, the same cannot be said this time around. That’s because the largest amount of votes went to that of Serbia.

So not only is this poll incorrect but it is also the first time in which Twitter picked an incorrect team to qualify for the Round of 16. It was of course Switzerland who finished runner in Group E, although there was only a 6% margin between that of Serbia and Switzerland so the voters were not a million miles away either.

Still even if they were one mile away, they were still wrong. This means the pollsters hit rate has slipped down to 70% at the end of Group E. Another point of note is that Brazil finished bottom of this poll, such was the confidence of them winning the group.

If we look at the voters breakdown in this poll:

61 votes were logged for Brazil to finish top of Group E
25 votes were logged for Serbia to finish runner of Group E.

This means that 44% of all votes in Group E were correct, although this is a figure which is somewhat padded by the fact that Brazil picked up 90% of the winning votes in the opening poll.

In terms of total votes of which there have been 893 it means that there have been 432 correct ones logged in total, this works out at 48.3%. So again just below half but when it is a one in four poll this is still a solid return.

If we were to assign a value of 4 points to the poll winners and 1 to the lowest amount of votes, then Group E would look as follows:

Serbia 7
Brazil 5
Switzerland 4.5
Costa Rica 3.5

So this one is a long way out with Serbia topping proceedings and not qualifying for the Round of 16, while Brazil’s value was massively skewed by the fact that they were hampered by a fourth place in the Group E runners up poll.

So Twitter takes a 70% hit rate in Group F, can they revive their fortunes there?

Here is how the Round of 16 list is shaping up:

Uruguay
Russia
Spain
Portugal
France
Denmark
Croatia (voted second place)
Argentina (voted first place)
Brazil
Switzerland (voted Serbia in second)

So a 70% hit rate in terms of votes, a 90% hit rate in terms of teams qualifying.

 

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