After a minor blip in the previous poll when Chile beat Portugal in the FIFA Confederations Cup Semi Final by way of a penalty shoot out on Wednesday night, that meant that the initial streak of correct picks by Twitter in this series of polls has come to an end. But could they redeem themselves when Germany went head to head with Mexico last night.
Firstly lets take a look at how Twitter thought this one would play out
— Dan Tracey (@dantracey1983) June 28, 2017
As you can see nearly a 4:1 ratio in terms of the voters, this percentage split was the the largest so far in terms of predicting who would win a particular game. So with that mind we will use 78% as a benchmark for the highest vote split. One thing we must also keep in mind though is the fact that this did have the smallest amount of voters with just 32, as always though thanks to everyone who got involved.
Now as we know by now Germany beat Mexico by 4 goals to 1, which has a nice symmetry to the ratio of votes towards Germany but as I’ve mentioned before that is more coincidence than anything else as you cannot assume that there are always going to be 5 goals in a game – although it would be nice if there was
Like in the previous four polls the votiers went with the favourites in terms of picks, so in no instances have the voters gone against the bookmakers. Again does this signify something towards a favourite bias or are just people making the wisest decision.
Sometimes you just have to accept that people are going to vote for a favourite not because of bias but because it is the most rational choice to make and in this instance it was a wise one indeed as Germany romped home to victory against Mexico.
Another thing that should be considered though is that Mexico wasted a whole host of chances, they had 26 efforts on goal and scored just the one. Had they been more clinical in front of goal then we could very well have been looking at a different story.
You do have to once again consider some familiarity bias in regards to people picking Germany over Mexico as with the larger bulk of my followers being from Europe and their knowledge of Mexican football not being as in tune it is obviously far easier to pick the World Cup winners this time around.
Even with this young German squad they have looked pretty ominous during this tournament and it is testament to the strength in depth that manager Joachim Low has as it his disposal and it certainly bodes well for the World Cup next year.
In terms of the Twitter pollsters they are now 3-1 up in terms of correct picks, which is a 75% success rate
Out of the 32 people who voted, 25 of those went for Germany and just 7 plumped for Mexico this time around. So those 25 voters can give themselves a pat on the back, not only that but it has also helped the ongoing percentage of total correct votes.
From the 4 polls that have been carried out there have been 163 votes and of those 91 have made the correct choice this week, after poll 3 the success rate here was just over 50% but thanks to Germany’s landslide poll win that rate now sits at 55.8%. So Twitter voters are making the correct choice more often than not at present.
This concludes the analysis for this piece and once this and the European Under 21 Championships come to a conclusion I will summarise all the polls. Keep an eye out for analysis of the final between Spain and Germany over the weekend and also an interesting piece on the Chinese Super League.
Please feel free to follow me on twitter and join in the polls and if this website has bought you there then please do say hello, also if you want to contact me in regards to any football data work that you currently have available then you can email me at firstname.lastname@example.org