19 men have been lucky enough to be bestowed with the honour of being known as manager of the England football team a list that includes luminaries such Sir Alf Ramsey, Sven Goran Eriksson and the current incumbent Gareth Southgate.

Only one of them has managed to deliver a major trophy, that of course being Sir Alf back in 1966. Since then it has been 52 years of frustration as the quest to repeat that feat is yet to be fulfilled, could this Summer finally be the time when England return to the game’s global summit?

That is something we will have wait for, but something we can answer right now is just how successful Gareth Southgate has been since in charge of the Three Lions and more importantly how he compares against the other 18 men who have been in charge of the nation’s finest.

As mentioned above England have only one success to write home about and that has been written at length, therefore using trophies won as a measure would be a pretty futile thing to do. Therefore I am going to use win ratio as the comparative metric.

The list of 19 managers includes those who have been in charge from a caretaker point of view and here they are listed in order of win ratio:

Manager England career P W D L Win %
Sam Allardyce 2016 1 1 0 0 100.00%
Fabio Capello 2008–2012 42 28 8 6 66.67%
Alf Ramsey 1963–1974 113 69 27 17 61.06%
Glenn Hoddle 1996–1999 28 17 6 5 60.71%
Ron Greenwood 1977–1982 55 33 12 10 60.00%
Sven-Göran Eriksson 2001–2006 67 40 17 10 59.70%
Roy Hodgson 2012–2016 56 33 15 8 58.93%
Walter Winterbottom 1946–1962 139 78 33 28 56.12%
Gareth Southgate 2016–Date 18 10 6 2 55.56%
Steve McClaren 2006–2007 18 9 4 5 50.00%
Bobby Robson 1982–1990 95 47 30 18 49.47%
Don Revie 1974–1977 29 14 8 7 48.28%
Terry Venables 1994–1996 23 11 11 1 47.83%
Graham Taylor 1990–1993 38 18 13 7 47.37%
Joe Mercer (caretaker) 1974 7 3 3 1 42.86%
Kevin Keegan 1999–2000 18 7 7 4 38.89%
Howard Wilkinson (caretaker) 1999, 2000 2 0 1 1 0.00%
Peter Taylor (caretaker) 2000 1 0 0 1 0.00%
Stuart Pearce (caretaker) 2012 1 0 0 1 0.00%

Now Sam Allardyce has almost made a mockery of any data analysis due to the fact that he has managed England once and has a perfect record. So in essence he almost becomes something of a statistical anomaly, but looking at this list we can see that Gareth Southgate currently finds himself ninth in the all time win ratio list.

The former Middlesbrough and Aston Villa defender has been in charge of England 18 times up until this point, winning 10 of those matches – this gives him a win ratio of 55.56%, what is also interesting though is the fact that he has also drawn one third of those 18 England fixtures.

Had a few of those draws been converted into wins then Southgate would realistically be a lot higher up the list, however he can still move up a few places over the course of the next few weeks should results go his and England’s way.

For example if we look into the future and assume that England make light work of Tunisia and Panama his record would look as follows:

Manager England career P W D L Win %
Sam Allardyce 2016 1 1 0 0 100.00%
Fabio Capello 2008–2012 42 28 8 6 66.67%
Alf Ramsey 1963–1974 113 69 27 17 61.06%
Glenn Hoddle 1996–1999 28 17 6 5 60.71%
Ron Greenwood 1977–1982 55 33 12 10 60.00%
Gareth Southgate 2016–Date 20 12 6 2 60.00%
Sven-Göran Eriksson 2001–2006 67 40 17 10 59.70%
Roy Hodgson 2012–2016 56 33 15 8 58.93%
Walter Winterbottom 1946–1962 139 78 33 28 56.12%
Steve McClaren 2006–2007 18 9 4 5 50.00%
Bobby Robson 1982–1990 95 47 30 18 49.47%
Don Revie 1974–1977 29 14 8 7 48.28%
Terry Venables 1994–1996 23 11 11 1 47.83%
Graham Taylor 1990–1993 38 18 13 7 47.37%
Joe Mercer (caretaker) 1974 7 3 3 1 42.86%
Kevin Keegan 1999–2000 18 7 7 4 38.89%
Howard Wilkinson (caretaker) 1999, 2000 2 0 1 1 0.00%
Peter Taylor (caretaker) 2000 1 0 0 1 0.00%
Stuart Pearce (caretaker) 2012 1 0 0 1 0.00%

From here Southgate moves up to joint fifth place with 60% of all England games won, the same ratio as that of Ron Greenwood and just edging ahead of Sven Goran-Eriksson. Now remember this forecast is not including the game against Belgium as that is still in the balance but if England got out of the group with maximum points then he would move up to third with only Sam Allardyce and Fabio Capello ahead of him.

So there is one forecast but let’s now look even deeper into our crystal balls and add in this “what if” scenario.
What if England won the 2018 FIFA World Cup and England won all seven matches, what would that do for Gareth Southgate’s win ratio.

Manager England career P W D L Win %
Sam Allardyce 2016 1 1 0 0 100.00%
Gareth Southgate 2016–Date 25 17 6 2 68.00%
Fabio Capello 2008–2012 42 28 8 6 66.67%
Alf Ramsey 1963–1974 113 69 27 17 61.06%
Glenn Hoddle 1996–1999 28 17 6 5 60.71%
Ron Greenwood 1977–1982 55 33 12 10 60.00%
Sven-Göran Eriksson 2001–2006 67 40 17 10 59.70%
Roy Hodgson 2012–2016 56 33 15 8 58.93%
Walter Winterbottom 1946–1962 139 78 33 28 56.12%
Steve McClaren 2006–2007 18 9 4 5 50.00%
Bobby Robson 1982–1990 95 47 30 18 49.47%
Don Revie 1974–1977 29 14 8 7 48.28%
Terry Venables 1994–1996 23 11 11 1 47.83%
Graham Taylor 1990–1993 38 18 13 7 47.37%
Joe Mercer (caretaker) 1974 7 3 3 1 42.86%
Kevin Keegan 1999–2000 18 7 7 4 38.89%
Howard Wilkinson (caretaker) 1999, 2000 2 0 1 1 0.00%
Peter Taylor (caretaker) 2000 1 0 0 1 0.00%
Stuart Pearce (caretaker) 2012 1 0 0 1 0.00%

It would actually put Southgate as the manager with the second highest win ratio in England’s history while only behind the statistical anomaly which is Sam Allardyce, therefore we could then say he would be the man with the highest ratio for all managers that have managed a minimum of 2 matches.

Perhaps that scenario is wishful thinking but it does at least show that Southgate is closer to being in good company rather than bad, another way to look at this is what if we removed Allardyce and all other managers who were in charge for less than 10 matches.

Manager England career P W D L Win %
Fabio Capello 2008–2012 42 28 8 6 66.67%
Alf Ramsey 1963–1974 113 69 27 17 61.06%
Glenn Hoddle 1996–1999 28 17 6 5 60.71%
Ron Greenwood 1977–1982 55 33 12 10 60.00%
Sven-Göran Eriksson 2001–2006 67 40 17 10 59.70%
Roy Hodgson 2012–2016 56 33 15 8 58.93%
Walter Winterbottom 1946–1962 139 78 33 28 56.12%
Gareth Southgate 2016–Date 18 10 6 2 55.56%
Steve McClaren 2006–2007 18 9 4 5 50.00%
Bobby Robson 1982–1990 95 47 30 18 49.47%
Don Revie 1974–1977 29 14 8 7 48.28%
Terry Venables 1994–1996 23 11 11 1 47.83%
Graham Taylor 1990–1993 38 18 13 7 47.37%
Kevin Keegan 1999–2000 18 7 7 4 38.89%

To be honest it does not do a great deal at the top end of the table with Allardyce no longer a factor but it what does do is at least remove some of the lesser remembered men who have been in charge of England. What it does show though is below Fabio Capello it is very tight in terms of win ratio.

If we apply the forecast table where England beat both Tunisia and Panama then Southgate sits just 1.06% Sir Alf Ramsay in second, therefore his progress up the table could well be a rapid one. Not only that though with Nations League and European Qualifiers to follow there is a chance to boost that ratio even further.

On the other hand this will add to the potential criticism of stat padding, playing in a myriad of qualifiers certainly gives you the chance to enhance a win ratio. Ultimately you can only beat what is in front of you and more often than not Southgate has been capable of doing so.

The question now is just how far can he move up the ranks, will he one day be England’s second most successful managers in terms of wins, if he delivers England’s second ever World Cup success then he certainly will be.

 

I am always available for any football data projects you may have and/or content creation.

If you have any requirements then please feel free to contact me at realfootballmanwordpress@gmail.com with the subject line “Football Data”

I am also available via twitter at @dantracey1983 – again feel free to get in touch to discuss any work. Thanks, Dan